Airlines Expect Record Traveler Numbers in 2024

by Lacey Pfalz
Last updated: 11:05 AM ET, Wed December 6, 2023

New data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts a record number of air travelers next year, alongside record revenue totals.

The new report also showcased the global aviation industry’s 2023 results, which was better than IATA had predicted this past summer. Revenue is expected to reach $896 billion by the end of the year, $93 billion higher than predicted. Industry-wide, aviation’s net profit is expected to be $23.3 billion this year, much higher than the $9.8 billion previously expected.

Airlines on average have earned $5.44 per passenger in 2023. Passenger revenue increased to $642 billion, another $96 billion higher than previously expected, largely due to rising prices and strong demand for travel.

“Industry profits must be put into proper perspective. While the recovery is impressive, a net profit margin of 2.7% is far below what investors in almost any other industry would accept,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “Of course, many airlines are doing better than that average, and many are struggling. But there is something to be learned from the fact that, on average airlines will retain just $5.45 for every passenger carried.

“That’s about enough to buy a basic ‘grande latte’ at a London Starbucks,” Walsh continued. “But it is far too little to build a future that is resilient to shocks for a critical global industry on which 3.5% of GDP depends and from which 3.05 million people directly earn their livelihoods. Airlines will always compete ferociously for their customers, but they remain far too burdened by onerous regulation, fragmentation, high infrastructure costs and a supply chain populated with oligopolies.”

Regional Results for 2023

Regionally, North America, Europe and the Middle East did the best in 2023 and are expected to be profitable. Airlines in the Asia Pacific region are expected to recover and become profitable next year.

North America leads the way as the first region in the airline industry to become profitable following the pandemic, which it reached in 2022. Demand for air travel remained strong in 2023, giving it another profitable year.

Europe will end 2023 on a strong note, but risks with the war in Ukraine and the Middle East are two risks that may slow down the industry’s growth in 2024.

The Asia Pacific region will have a slower recovery, as China only recently eliminated its final pandemic-era restrictions in the middle of 2023. However, the region’s airline industry is expected to become profitable in 2024.

Latin America shows an uneven recovery: Mexico is incredibly strong, while other regions are seeing a slower post-pandemic recovery. In 2023 and in 2024, the region is expected to not be profitable.

The Middle East has done well to expand its international networks, with strong capacity growth in 2024, though demand will remain slightly lower. The region is expected to be profitable both this year and the next.

The African airline industry is seeing strong demand, but IATA notes that economic, infrastructure and connectivity challenges continue to slow the region’s profitability in both 2023 and in 2024.

Looking Ahead to 2024

The global airline industry is expected to reach $25.7 billion in net profits in 2024, which is a 2.7 percent net profit margin, just a small increase over this year’s prediction. Total revenue is expected to grow 7.6 percent, to a record $964 billion.

Airline industry operating profits are expected to increase from $40.7 billion this year to $49.3 billion in 2024.

Spurring its growth are the 4.7 billion people expected to hop on an airplane next year, a number that breaks the historic 4.5 billion travelers who flew in 2019, prior to the pandemic.

Sustainability in 2024

IATA predicts the industry to consume 99 billion gallons of fuel and produce 939 million tons of CO2 emissions in 2024. It also predicts that Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAFs) consumption could increase to 0.53 percent of the industry’s total fuel consumption next year. Carbon offsetting by the industry, conducted by CORSIA, is expected to cost $1 billion.

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